Crisis? What crisis?
The evidence is all there of looming skills crisis, yet Simon Howard
wonders why employers aren't more concerned.
It might sound a little sad, but I'm an avid follower of what HR Directors
say and think, or is it what they think they say or say they think? Anyway,
so far this year I have noted 14 different issues which various illuminari of
the profession have identified as hot topics for 2004. Most mentions
went to 'talent development' and 'diversity', while 'staff engagement', 'performance
management' and 'union recognition' all did well too.
However, ladies and gentlemen of the HR illuminari , if you
cast your eyes to the tables below* you might want to add another
couple of hot topics - namely 'skills shortages' and 'earnings explosion'
- although of course the wise and regular reader(s) of this column has
known this now for some time.
Let me just try the headlines of the latest Report on Jobs on you:
'Growth of permanent placements hits a 41-month high in December'
(translation:
Your competitor employers are hiring people faster than at any time
since July 2000).
'Employment rises at increased rate' (translation: The rate of
expansion of private sector employment is the fastest since March
2001. Clearly bad news for private sector employers, but worse for the
public sector as this is an early indication of a diminishing candidate
pool).
'Demand for staff remains buoyant' (translation: Despite filling
all those vacancies in December, even more are pouring through the doors
of employment agencies - no doubt some of them as a result of all those
resignations).
'Staff availability deteriorates again' (translation: We've got
less people on our books.which means:
'Upward pressure on pay rates' (translation not needed).
And now let's look at the charts:
I'm not scare-mongering, but in short
there is every prospect that you will lose more people in 2004
than you did in 2003, you will pay more to recruit them and you will
probably pay them more when they join. On top of that, there is a every
chance that you will have to pay for more temporary cover for unfilled
vacancies and that that cover will cost you more too.
The reason for being so confident in these predictions is what the
content of the aforementioned tables illustrates, the steady trends they
clearly demonstrate, and the prospect that continuing economic growth
will fuel even greater demand for labour.
Of course if you're in the recruitment industry this should all be
music to your ears, but I wonder whether some of those HR illuminari should
have had 'finally sorting out a resourcing strategy' on their hot topics
for 2004? Because sitting where I do, I can only see their wage and recruitment
bills going in one direction.
Of course I've heard from some that they've got it sorted - "we outsourced
recruitment in that area last year" (i.e. it's not my problem any more).
True to an extent, but sitting where I do (in the day job) we're seeing
increasing evidence that the recruitment agencies are already running
out of candidates in some difficult-to-recruit areas.I've said it before,
but a recruitment problem doesn't go away just because it's been outsourced.
I also worry whether the true cost of unfilled vacancies or staff turnover
is ever accurately measured - particularly when temporary fees and wages
will often come out of different budgets - thus masking the true costs
of the skills crisis.
All this is made all the more relevant as 2004 also shows every sign
of being the year of e-recruitment. With systems from the likes of I-Grasp,
Brassring and SAP being installed by many leading employers, they now
have the opportunity of running their own candidate databases (or 'talent
pools') and therefore using recruitment services far more strategically.
But 'recruitment' and 'strategy' have not historically been easy bedfellows
as recruitment company services have all too often been bought by the
profession in much the same way they might order Dynorod onto the premises.
So my saddest prediction for 2004 is that recruitment company revenues
will rocket as employers turn yet again in desperation to recruitment
agencies just to get a bum on a seat.
If only the illuminari had been more wrapped up in what's
really important.
Simon Howard is a founder of work and
writes the weekly Jobfile column for the Sunday Times.
* Deloittte & Touche REC Report on Jobs, produced by NTC Research
for Deloittte & Touche LLP and the Recruitment and Employment Confederation
(www.rec.uk.com).
For
further information contact NTC on: 01491 418700.
www.ntc-research.co.uk
